Where Al-Qaeda Stands

by Dan Lacca

Before I proceed with this entry, I feel I am obligated to mention that there are over a billion Muslims in the entire of world. The majority of which live out there day to day lives in peace and harmony with the rest of us. This entry is NOT about them.

Al Qaeda was formed during the years of 1988 and 1989 right in the middle of modern globalization. The Soviet Union was on the verge of collapse, and advances in Information Technology were making it possible for non-state actors to coordinate across international lines challenging the interactions of states with other states as the fundamental principle of international affairs. When Osama Bin Laden created Al Qaeda, he was able to build a vast centralized network that operated across national borders. He became the leader of one of the largest non-state international organizations in the world. The organization’s primary goal was to ultimately break off all foreign influences in Muslim countries, and create a global Caliphate. On September 11, 2001, Al Qaeda proved just how powerful a non-state actor could be with the right resources and leadership. By embracing irregular warfare, Al Qaeda was able to hold out against the United States, and Osama Bin Laden evaded capture. Finally on May 2, 2011, United States Navy Seals killed Bin Laden in a compound in Pakistan, after an intense ten year long man hunt. Upon his death, many questions were raised about the future of the war on terror. Perhaps the most important question being asked was “what would the future of Al Qaeda would be without the man who founded this global network?”

Since Osama Bin Laden’s death in 2011, the structural integrity of Al Qaeda has been hotly debated. Its central command is believed to be still intact, functioning in the tribal areas of Pakistan. There are still reports of Al Qaeda operations taking place across the world, most recently Syria. Rather than being structured as an international organization operating under a single chain of command, Al Qaeda has decentralized into multiple independent factions. Some believe this a ripple affect caused by Bin Laden’s death that will ultimately lead to Al Qaeda’s demise.

Make no mistake. Al Qaeda may have been weakened, but it is still very much alive.It seems for the time being the organization’s primary focus has shifted from an ongoing conflict with the United States, to more local operations. Each faction operates separately from the core command acting on its own local or regional agenda. For example: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb is the North African faction. Their primary objective is an overthrow of the Algerian government and to replace it with an Islamic state. Al Qaeda’s Syrian faction has played a major role in the ongoing civil war, with a similar objective. These are both local insurrections and although the central command under Ayman Zawahiri supports the movements it has little involvement in any of the daily operations. The factions are loosely held together by a simple pledge of allegiance to one another and sharing the common goal of reestablishing a caliphate in the Middle East. However, this is the exact goal the organization was founded on.

In order to determine whether or not Al Qaeda’s decentralization will be its demise, or if it will work in the organizations favor, it is important to keep in mind the five stages excerpt from "Al Qaeda’s Strategy to the Year 2020" written by Saif al-Adel, a high ranking Al Qaeda official:

Stage 1: Provoke the United States and the West into invading a Muslim country by staging a massive attack or string of attacks on U.S. soil that results in massive civilian casualties.
Stage 2: Incite local resistance to occupying forces.
Stage 3: Expand the conflict to neighboring countries, and engage the U.S. and its allies in a long war of attrition.
Stage 4: Convert al-Qaeda into an ideology and set of operating principles that can be loosely franchised in other countries without requiring direct command and control. These franchises incite attacks against the U.S. and countries allied with the U.S. until they withdraw from the conflict,
Stage 5: The U.S. economy will finally collapse by the year 2020 under the strain of multiple engagements in numerous places, making the worldwide economic system which is dependent on the U.S. also collapse leading to global political instability, which in turn leads to a global jihad led by al-Qaeda and a Wahhabi Caliphate will then be installed across the world following the collapse of the U.S. and the rest of the Western world countries.

This should send chills up and down the spines of every American. At least three and a half of these stages have been successfully fulfilled. Stage one started when a number of attacks took place: the World Trade Center bombings in 1993, the attack on American Embassies in 1998, and the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000, these were all meant to pull America into a war with a Muslim nation. Then the tipping point, 9/11, soon followed and pulled America into Afghanistan.

Stages two and three happened pretty much simultaneously. They began once the war on terror was expanded into Iraq. Although Al Qaeda did not force the United States into Iraq, the US encountered Al Qaeda resistance there. While the US was committed to occupying two states, the Taliban was able to gain strongholds in Afghanistan and Iraq fell into civil war. Both wars were wars of attrition, and it took roughly a decade for America to finally secure both nations for a successful withdrawal from the region.

Stage four has been half way completed. Since the war on terror began in 2001, Al Qaeda has evolved from an organization to an ideology. When asked if the organization was behind the 2005 King's Cross train station bombing in London, Metropolitan Police Commissioner Ian Blair was quoted by FOX news stating that "Al Qaeda is not an organization. Al Qaeda is a way of working.” Again in 2011, terrorist attacks in Norway were inspired by Al Qaeda doctrine. Al Qaeda as an ideology could also be sensed during the early stages of investigations into the Boston Marathon Bombing. To differentiate between a domestic attack and an act of international jihad, the phrase “Al Qaeda Style Attack” was used to describe the later.

Al Qaeda has successfully converted their tactics and mission goal into and ideology and they have thus far proven stable under a decentralized command system. However, it is too soon to determine whether or not the second half of Stage four, “incite attacks against the U.S. and its allies until they withdraw from the conflict” was successful. It will be some time before it becomes clear whether or not the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will favor Al Qaeda or American interests.

Stage five has not arrived yet and will not for a few more years. Killing Bin Laden decentralized Al Qaeda, and for the time being, weakened it. The cross hairs are not dead centered on the United States, for now they are focused on local issues. Some factions, like the ones in Iraq and Syria have merged together, but the problem with having a bunch of small independent groups is that now they can think for themselves. There is a risk of conflict between one another. One wrong move by the leadership will force the movement to fall apart. However, even though Bin Laden is dead, Al Qaeda is not. The war on terror is far from over.

The war on terror is the first great conflict of the 21^st century and currently sits on a critical point where the United States cannot afford to falter. The factions must be turned against each other. During the Cold War, Nixon drove a wedge through communism by normalizing relations with China and putting them at odds with the Soviet Union. A similar strategy can be applied in the current phase of the war on terror. Through the application of appropriate smart powertactics Al Qaeda can be destabilized further and eliminated as a future threat. A wedge must be driven through the Al Qaeda factions and put them at odds with one another. Only then will America be able to truly claim, “Mission accomplished.”