Thursday, May 16, 2013

Where Al-Qaeda Stands


by Dan Lacca

Before I proceed with this entry, I feel I am obligated to mention that there are over a billion Muslims in the entire of world. The majority of which live out there day to day lives in peace and harmony with the rest of us. This entry is NOT about them.

Al Qaeda was formed during the years of 1988 and 1989 right in the middle of modern globalization. The Soviet Union was on the verge of collapse, and advances in Information Technology were making it possible for non-state actors to coordinate across international lines challenging the interactions of states with other states as the fundamental principle of international affairs. When Osama Bin Laden created Al Qaeda, he was able to build a vast centralized network that operated across national borders. He became the leader of one of the largest non-state international organizations in the world. The organization’s primary goal was to ultimately break off all foreign influences in Muslim countries, and create a global Caliphate. On September 11, 2001, Al Qaeda proved just how powerful a non-state actor could be with the right resources and leadership. By embracing irregular warfare, Al Qaeda was able to hold out against the United States, and Osama Bin Laden evaded capture. Finally on May 2, 2011, United States Navy Seals killed Bin Laden in a compound in Pakistan, after an intense ten year long man hunt. Upon his death, many questions were raised about the future of the war on terror. Perhaps the most important question being asked was “what would the future of Al Qaeda would be without the man who founded this global network?”

Since Osama Bin Laden’s death in 2011, the structural integrity of Al Qaeda has been hotly debated. Its central command is believed to be still intact, functioning in the tribal areas of Pakistan. There are still reports of Al Qaeda operations taking place across the world, most recently Syria. Rather than being structured as an international organization operating under a single chain of command, Al Qaeda has decentralized into multiple independent factions. Some believe this a ripple affect caused by Bin Laden’s death that will ultimately lead to Al Qaeda’s demise.

Make no mistake. Al Qaeda may have been weakened, but it is still very much alive.It seems for the time being the organization’s primary focus has shifted from an ongoing conflict with the United States, to more local operations. Each faction operates separately from the core command acting on its own local or regional agenda. For example: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb is the North African faction. Their primary objective is an overthrow of the Algerian government and to replace it with an Islamic state. Al Qaeda’s Syrian faction has played a major role in the ongoing civil war, with a similar objective. These are both local insurrections and although the central command under Ayman Zawahiri supports the movements it has little involvement in any of the daily operations. The factions are loosely held together by a simple pledge of allegiance to one another and sharing the common goal of reestablishing a caliphate in the Middle East. However, this is the exact goal the organization was founded on.